David Iben put it well when he said, ‘Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.’ So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that TPI Composites, Inc. (NASDAQ:TPIC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is TPI Composites’s Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 TPI Composites had US$189.3m of debt, an increase on US$57.8m, over one year. However, it does have US$170.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$19.2m.
How Healthy Is TPI Composites’ Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, TPI Composites had liabilities of US$417.4m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$266.0m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$170.1m in cash and US$378.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$134.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$202.6m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine TPI Composites’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward.
Over 12 months, TPI Composites reported revenue of US$1.6b, which is a gain of 17%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. We usually like to see faster growth from unprofitable companies, but each to their own.
Caveat Emptor
Over the last twelve months TPI Composites produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Indeed, it lost a very considerable US$61m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. However, it doesn’t help that it burned through US$95m of cash over the last year. So in short it’s a really risky stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start.