The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.’ So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Ultralife Corporation (NASDAQ:ULBI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can’t fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well – and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Ultralife’s Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Ultralife had US$23.1m of debt, an increase on US$22.0m, over one year. On the flip side, it has US$5.61m in cash leading to net debt of about US$17.5m.
How Strong Is Ultralife’s Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Ultralife had liabilities of US$29.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$25.6m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$5.61m and US$24.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$24.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn’t so bad because Ultralife is worth US$73.8m, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company’s debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While Ultralife’s debt to EBITDA ratio (3.1) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 1.0, suggesting high leverage. In large part that’s due to the company’s significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. However, the silver lining was that Ultralife achieved a positive EBIT of US$1.3m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year’s loss. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ultralife can strengthen its balance sheet over time.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it’s worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. During the last year, Ultralife burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Ultralife’s interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn’t such a worry. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Ultralife’s use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start.