Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Resideo Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:REZI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of ‘creative destruction’ where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company’s use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Resideo Technologies Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of October 2022 Resideo Technologies had US$1.42b of debt, an increase on US$1.23b, over one year. However, it does have US$270.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.15b.
A Look At Resideo Technologies’ Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Resideo Technologies had liabilities of US$1.54b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.32b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$270.0m as well as receivables valued at US$1.04b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.55b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company’s US$2.36b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
We’d say that Resideo Technologies’s moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.5), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 13.2 times, makes us even more comfortable. Also good is that Resideo Technologies grew its EBIT at 11% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Resideo Technologies’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Resideo Technologies’s free cash flow amounted to 25% of its EBIT, less than we’d expect. That’s not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Neither Resideo Technologies’s ability to handle its total liabilities nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Resideo Technologies’s debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet.