Quad/Graphics, Inc. (NYSE:QUAD) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last month. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 80% in that time. So it’s about time shareholders saw some gains. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.
We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Quad/Graphics became profitable within the last five years. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn’t reliably profitable. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn’t explain the share price drop. Revenue has been pretty flat over three years, so that isn’t an obvious reason shareholders would sell. A closer look at revenue and profit trends might yield insights.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Quad/Graphics will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Quad/Graphics, it has a TSR of -75% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Quad/Graphics had a tough year, with a total loss of 60% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 27%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 19% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
