Warren Buffett famously said, ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Orion S.A. (NYSE:OEC) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can’t easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of ‘creative destruction’ where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Orion’s Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2023, Orion had US$894.8m of debt, up from US$830.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$76.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$818.0m.
How Strong Is Orion’s Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Orion had liabilities of US$530.8m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$897.0m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$76.8m and US$348.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$1.00b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$1.28b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Orion’s use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Orion has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.1 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we’d stop short of calling them problematic. It is well worth noting that Orion’s EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 42% in the last twelve months. That’ll make it easier to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Orion can strengthen its balance sheet over time.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Orion burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Neither Orion’s ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Orion is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet.