The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.’ So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Glatfelter Corporation (NYSE:GLT) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can’t fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well – and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Glatfelter’s Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2022 Glatfelter had debt of US$845.1m, up from US$787.4m in one year. On the flip side, it has US$110.7m in cash leading to net debt of about US$734.4m.
How Strong Is Glatfelter’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Glatfelter had liabilities of US$360.4m due within a year, and liabilities of US$968.9m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$110.7m in cash and US$195.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.02b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$158.2m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we’d watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Glatfelter would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 0.70 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.2 hit our confidence in Glatfelter like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Given the debt load, it’s hardly ideal that Glatfelter’s EBIT was pretty flat over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can’t view debt in total isolation; since Glatfelter will need earnings to service that debt.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Glatfelter recorded free cash flow of 38% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we’d expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
To be frank both Glatfelter’s interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn’t such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Glatfelter has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it’s certainly not our cup of tea. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet.