For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn’t blame long term Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 49% over a half decade. The silver lining is that the stock is up 1.4% in about a week.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Kinder Morgan moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
The most recent dividend was actually lower than it was in the past, so that may have sent the share price lower. The revenue decline of 2.7% per year wouldn’t have helped. So it seems weak revenue and dividend trends may have influenced the share price.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Kinder Morgan
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Kinder Morgan, it has a TSR of -38% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Kinder Morgan shareholders have received returns of 29% over twelve months (even including dividends) , which isn’t far from the general market return. The silver lining is that the share price is up in the short term, which flies in the face of the annualised loss of 9.0% over the last five years. While ‘turnarounds seldom turn’ there are green shoots for Kinder Morgan. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 3 warning signs with Kinder Morgan (at least 2 which shouldn’t be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Kinder Morgan is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.